Lies, Damn Lies... and Statistics

It's an extremely frustrating habit to have but every year July is never a great month for us winners-wise.

Annoyingly, we hit the crossbar again this week when Exopuntia came third at Newmarket on Friday night. Take nothing away from the filly, it was probably a career best run, but it was yet another runner without a winner.

It came after some disappointing runs from a few horses and although it's easy to say the yard is under form, I think it's far from the case.

As a small yard, a lot of our horses tend to win early in the year and come the middle months, the horses are rated too high after a successful period. By August, the horses are back to winning marks and get their heads in front. I looked up the statistics on the Racing Post website and was surprised to see such a trend - last July we had 22 runners without a winner. Although we're only up to 12 runners so far this month, I'm pretty sure it's nothing more than coincidence.

I say this because we've got a great chance of success tomorrow at Yarmouth. I don't run many horses in selling races but Red Hearts goes down into that grade as she has already won a maiden but, as a result, is rated far too high to win a handicap so a seller is her best option. There is the worry someone may buy her afterwards as she has the best form in the event but she is a tiny horse and I hope that puts people off her as she could win a few more races of that type.Pyjoma also runs and we're hoping she can show a bit more promise than she did last time.

We won't be racing until Sunday after that when my two children, Ross and Shelley, ride against each other for the first time at Newbury. They are at either ends of the experience scale with Ross having ridden ten winners and Shelley yet to score but the signs look good for her; Ross rode his first winner at Newbury in the same colours that Shelley will be wearing - those of Entrance. The filly ran a bit below par on Friday after being in such great form but I do feel that the ground may have been a bit soft for her as the jockey said she never picked up after travelling well. I do hope that is the case as Entrance has a great chance.

Ross will be riding a new horse to us called The Ducking Stool. She's a big filly and will probably need the race after not running in a long time but she does work OK at home.

If there are scores to settle from this Newbury encounter, the rematch comes the following day at Windsor. Ross is on his favourite horse, Bavarica, who he has won five times on. It is also Bavarica's 100th career race so it would be amazing to make it a winning one and we'll be doing everything we can to make sure. However, I won't be too upset if she is denied by Shelley's mount Sand Repeal. He won the same race a few years back but has been injured since. He is slowly coming back to form and hopefully he can run respectably.

Three To Follow Update

As we are now halfway through the competition, now is your chance to add another horse to your selections to boost your chances of winning. To keep things simple, instead of substituting one horse for another, just add a selection to your current list of three so you end up with four horses.

All points already scored by an added horse will not be added to your current score but any points from August 1st onwards will.

To make a selection, simply leave your name and choice in the comment box below or email to: rbirkett1989@hotmail.co.uk

Here is the list of horses to choose from and their current points in brackets:Emma's Gift (10), Entrance (13), Sancho Panza (18), Khajaaly (3), Sand Repeal, Exopuntia (3), Automotive, Sail Home (10), Verona Bay, Blackmore (5), Pyjoma, Acer Diamonds, Spirit of Sharjah, King Columbo, Angel Of Mercy, Red Hearts (13), Bavarica (13), Premier League (10), Canning Vale.